Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
