Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
